Relationship between the Poland´s trade flows at the commodity level and the zloty exchange rate

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the short run and the long run effects of exchange rate changes of Polish zloty on trade flows in the context of disaggregated industry data of Poland´s foreign trade flows. For this purpose, the Johannsen cointegration test and the vector error correction model are used. Examined industries are determined on the basis of SITC classification. We used quarterly data over the sample period 1997–2013. Our findings suggest that the respond to exchange rate depreciations are different accross examined segments of industries. There is revealed, that only some of the product groups are in the long run relationship with exchange rate. Positive effect of depreciations was detected for the majority of these segments.