Global uncertainty and trade resilience: the role of logistics performance in shaping export outcomes — evidence from Türkiye and the European Union

Abstract

International trade has become increasingly exposed to global uncertainty arising from financial crises, policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and health shocks, all of which disrupt supply chains and weaken cross-border economic integration. While a growing body of literature shows that uncertainty stresses the trade by raising costs and discouraging investment, its effects are not uniform across countries. Some economies demonstrate greater resilience, sustaining exports or recovering more rapidly from adverse shocks. This study examines whether logistics performance constitutes a key structural factor underpinning such resilience in international trade. Focusing on the Türkiye–European Union (EU) trade relationship over the period 2007–2024, the paper analyzes how global and EU-specific policy uncertainty affects bilateral export flows, whether strong logistics systems can diminish these negative effects. Employing a gravity model framework with bilateral panel data, the analysis incorporates multiple uncertainty indicators alongside two complementary measures of logistics performance, the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI). The results provide evidence that heightened uncertainty significantly reduces Türkiye’s exports to the EU, while superior logistics performance directly enhances trade volumes. More importantly, the findings suggest that robust logistics systems weaken the adverse impact of uncertainty, thereby enhancing export resilience. The study also uncovers asymmetries between Türkiye and EU exporters, reflecting differences in logistics capacity and structural resilience. By integrating uncertainty and logistics into a unified analytical framework, this research contributes to the trade resilience literature and offers policy relevant insights on the role of trade facilitation and infrastructure investment in protect exports against global shocks.