Expectations, disillusionment, consolidation, a hype cycle perspective on the history of systems thinking

Abstract

Systems thinking has repeatedly resurfaced across engineering, management, and societal problem-solving since the 1960s; however, the uptake has been uneven, with recurring surges of enthusiasm followed by critique and partial consolidation. This paper examines bibliometric signals to determine whether these waves exhibit Gartner Hype Cycle phases. Using Scopus, annual publication counts and subject area distributions were extracted for 1964 to 2025. To reduce confounding from long-run growth in indexed publications, the analysis compares raw counts with growth-compensated indicators, including normalised shares and detrended series, and then inspects wave structure at the aggregate and subject-area levels. Analysing these results shows that the aggregate publication series exhibits sustained growth and lacks a clear single peak-trough pattern, indicating that an overall hype cycle is not strongly supported by raw bibliometrics alone. In contrast, subject-area-specific and detrended series display clearer episodic surges and corrections, consistent with multiple out-of-phase waves rather than a single universal lifecycle. These findings support using the hype cycle as a heuristic for expectations dynamics in systems thinking, while highlighting the limits of phrase-based bibliometrics as a proxy for adoption and realised value.