Uncovering patterns in fleet structure, activity intensity and emissions using cluster analysis of European road transport

Abstract

The decarbonization of European transport is accelerating under the combined influence of regulatory pressure, sustainable finance mechanisms, and technological innovation. According to the literature such regulatory instruments as the European Green Deal, emissions trading, and fiscal incentives remain the most decisive drivers of early-stage fleet electrification. The research aims to identify and categorize distinct patterns of road transport fleet structures, activity intensities, and emission profiles across the EU countries. K-means cluster analysis that employs road transport indicators of emissions, vehicle type and other characteristics based on 2024 data shows that Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium form one group. It can be characterized by the highest use of electric road vehicles and thus can be considered as “trendsetters” potentially serving as models for other countries to follow. The second cluster consists of Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Poland, Czechia, and Romania with the highest use of new freight vehicles or fastest progress towards it. Other countries form the third cluster, while Luxembourg, Estonia and Cyprus can be considered as outliers. The results are valuable for policymakers and stakeholders in designing targeted strategies for accelerating fleet electrification and low-carbon innovation across diverse national contexts, fostering more effective and adaptive decarbonization pathways in European road transport.