Divergent circularity in the EU: clustering of recycling, material footprint, and resource productivity

Abstract

In the context of the EU Circular Economy Action Plan, we evaluate the circular economy performance of the 27 European countries over the period 2014–2023. The assessment compiles 6 Eurostat indicators: material footprint, waste generation, municipal and plastic packaging waste recycling rates, resource productivity, and trade in recyclable raw materials. Fuzzy c-means clustering was used to classify countries into performance profiles with overlapping membership. It applied multidimensional scaling (MDS) to visualise temporal dynamics (2014, 2017, 2020, 2023). Correlation analysis reveals that higher recycling rates, resource productivity, and secondary raw material trade are closely aligned, whereas high per capita waste generation often fails to translate into improved circular outcomes. Results reveal strong heterogeneity and a “two-speed” Europe in circularity outcomes. Four distinct clusters emerge: underperformers (e.g., Cyprus, Hungary), transitional but unstable performers (e.g., Croatia, Estonia), average performers (e.g., Italy, Spain), and frontrunners (e.g., Germany, Netherlands), with some leaders exhibiting volatility. The clustering results further reveal that several countries (e.g., Sweden, Finland) occupy intermediate positions with overlapping cluster membership, reflecting structural trade-offs between high recycling efficiency and elevated material consumption. These findings show the need for targeted policy support under the EU Circular Economy Action Plan to help lagging countries catch up and to stabilise progress, thereby accelerating Europe’s transition towards a circular economy.